I found this article about US currency very interesting:
http://the-moneychanger.com/goldmoney/dollar_collapse.phtmlIt's an interview with James Turk. He maintains our currency has already collapsed, and that the collapse is happening in stages, each worse than the last. The interview was made in 2004, and some of the things he has predicted have already come to pass.
I also found this book by Daniel Arnold interesting:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/159196153XIt's about demographics, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. He demonstrates how age demographics and the DJIA follow each other very closely, and when applied to the past, show a pattern of predicting recessions and depressions.
Industrialized Western economies are mostly consumer driven. The biggest consumer spending demographic is people between the ages of 45 and 54. It is at that age range when people have their greatest earning capacity, spend the most, and make the most largest purchases of their lives.
Because the people who will be in that age group are now already alive, we can predict when that age group will grow or shrink. In his small 64 page book, Arnold demonstrates how when that demographic shrinks, we have recessions and depressions. When it grows, the economy grows too. He has many charts and graphs to illustrate his logic. He takes into account people killed in wars, immigration, etc. His findings are that the DJIA follows age demographics closely. Short term variables can move them apart briefly, but they always go back together.
I don't agree with all of Arnold's conclusions, about what it means for our society or how we should prepare for it. But his statistics look pretty solid, and I've yet to read a good argument against them. Most of his critics attack his conclusions, but not his data.
According to his data, Western industrialized nations are going to see the 45-54 age group diminish significantly from 2012 to about 2023. And he says that means a global depression.
He doesn't take into account countries like China and India. They may not experience that demographic shrinkage, but they rely on selling to countries that will. On his website is one of his graphs, showing the how the age demographic and the DJIA have followed each other closely since 1920, to the present:
http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/And yes, I would say the website and the way he markets his book is rather cheezy. I wish I could say the same about the data, though. I've read the book, it took about an hour to read. His data looks solid. I've yet to hear anyone explain why it isn't.
I really hate the doom and gloom stuff, I much prefer to be an optimist. But from everything I've seen regarding financial matters, from many different sources, they all seem to be saying that ... we've got some real bumps on the road ahead, to say the least.
- Chaz
