American Money Crisis

[jasondude7116]

This is a political takeover of our country. Nothing less. Plans have been refined for many centuries.
The one that has been happening for the last 200 years or so, is the Soviet's with the use of Islam. Or as they call them..."usefull idiots"

watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbyarMMgd_M

[snowman]

Amazing Jason...

1) Demoralization

2)Crisis

3)Normalization

4)Destablization

So I'm guessing we are in the Normalization stage or we're about to be in it. We certainly have allot of usefull idiots to spare.  I don't think we are in the Destablization stage yet.... Well... at least I don't think so.

[DrFaraday]

Raybe,
Arnold's premise does allow for variances, meddling with what you describe as the "habitat".  For instance, Arnold's graph shows that measures taken by the government to create all those pick axe and shovel jobs in the early part of the depression, did lift the economy up a bit higher than it should have been, according to the demographics.  In the latter part of the depression, excise taxes by the government brought DJIA lower than the demographic.

Many people claim that war spending pulled the US out of the depression, but the demographic shows that it would have happened anyway.

In the 1970's the demographic predicted the recession, because the soldiers who died in WWII were not alive in the 70's where they would have been contributing members of the 45-54 age demographic group of spenders.  But that recession was also probably also worsened by bad economic policies at the time.

Even now, the demographic indicates that our economy should be doing better than it is.  But human factors like the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the stimulus spending, and other government policies are doing their part in unsettling the financial "habitat".

I think that Arnold's main point is that, while human tampering with the habitat can influence the DJIA for better or worse, it remains tethered to the age demographic; it still never moves very far from that demographic.

I'm not sure anyone completely understands how it's all going to play out.  With global markets that are interconnected electronically, and all the variables involved, it's hard to say exactly what will happen, even if Arnold's demographic model holds true.  But it looks like we won't have to wait very long to find out.


Jasondude,
Interesting video.  The video was from the mid '80's, seeing it with the contemporary photos gave it a new freshness.  But the video was also edited, and a bit mixed up, I think.  I had previously heard of that KGB strategy, but the order was different.

Here is one source:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/08/from_russia_with_no_love.html

They describe the process as:

1. Demoralization.

2. Destabilization.

3. Crisis.

4. Normalization.

I found a better quality video that agrees with that order:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeMZGGQ0ERk

But that video is also edited, so I looked for a transcript of the interview, and I found this:

http://uselessdissident.blogspot.com/2008/11/interview-with-yuri-bezmenov-part-three.html

It confirms that the order of the process that Bezmenov describes was  Demoralization, Destabilization, Crisis, then Normalization.  I would say we are in or approaching the crisis phase.  The crushing of dissent comes in the Normalization phase.

Bezmenov makes recommendations about what we should do to avert the final phase.  Of course, that was 25 years ago, but the struggle isn't over yet.  Wether or America as we know it will prevail, remains to be seen.

The link to the transcript is to part three.  It's worth reading parts one and two as well. Bezmenov's story is fascinating, there are photos too.  Thanks for posting the video, I would not have found the rest without it.

- Chaz

[raybe]

I'm not sure if your agreeing with the demographics formula has shown over the years and not comparing it to anything else that has happened to this economy and continues to happen as we speak. The demographic theory to me reflects not that demographics causes recessions or depressions for that very fact you mention. Giving people something to do for no money does not change a thing and all those pick axe and shovel jobs did nothing. They report the unemployment rate has dropped when they decide we are going to hire people and pay temporary salaries to people in the streets for census reports or re- build one large project that we don't have the money for anyway. This is a total shift of wealth. Who do you think pays for those jobs and those people to go back to work for no money and who do you think keeps the money? Our Country does not have the money & you can't spend what you don't have and printing more sure does not work.
"True individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence."
Franklin D. Roosevelt

The money of millions and millions of people has been lost already. You can can't just make it re-appear. I know in my business for every dollar I have someone has to be missing a dollar but the dollar has to get back into the system and into someone's  pocket for it to continue to work unless it just stays in their pocket and at that time the dollar is gone. So we decide to print more money and create more debt. The wealth and value is out of the hands of the hard working people that put that money back into play and now where bankrupt. The demographics are just the results of the people that don't put the money back into the system and when there are less of us and more of them(BANKS,other Financial Inst.,brokers,Insurance,Credit cards) that don't put the money back into play the wealth shifts very quietly and quickly. The wealth I'm talking about is not the tens of trillions in just inflated property values that disappeared. That wealth never really existed. The money that was shifted from one large group of people to a much smaller one consisted of hard-earned savings not to be seen again.
It just gets me upset and I know I don't know everything and maybe things will balance out as life constantly evolves. In my heart I really feel something different has shifted. Although we cycle through life with upturns, downturns, demographics and such this just does not feel the same or look the same to me knowing that different things can happen and you can get the same results. Just my opinion.
When you mention the '70's' the demographics are showing a result after the fact of something else occurring which again show more of them and less of us and then you want to add bad economic policies at the time. These policies are still in play only with larger numbers and with a more obvious shift in wealth. That to me is what I call the 'habitat'. Just as life does evolve and not just with graphs or statistics. Again we know when Hurricane or Tornado seasons are here but know one knows the results of those conditions when they are there most likelihood.
As our habitat continues to shrink we adapt or we dwindle in numbers and as long as 'those demographics' continue the results will always be the same..
A good point you mentioned. Let's throw in the the global economics that we are just waking up to and

Maybe we got it all wrong and the Mayan (don't know if that is spelled correctly) Calender meant the end of something and the new beginning of something else. Just lightening up the mood. Lets either try, hope and or pray for the better of things to come. Besides I think they just missed it by four to five years or so.
 Now that I think of it the movie '2012' was built around that concept and I didn't like that movie at all!! 

With all the different theories, beliefs agreements and disagreements which is a healthy thing the bottom line is, 'I wish nothing but the best for everyone including their families and we all come out okay'!

raybe

[snowman]

Thanks for the Fix Chaz.

The four step process makes allot of sense. You know that this information could also be used on individuals or even small groups, not just a Nation. Just food for thought.

It seems that the severity of our debt, both individual and national... as well as global, will ultimately bring everything down. Case in point.... what happens when you are in debt up to your eyebrows? Ultimately, the bank takes everything you have and that's that. What happens if a town goes bankrupt? The bank takes everything it can and cuts it's losses. What happens if a Country goes bankrupt? The bank buys everything up and you become tenants. Then you pay the banks rent in the form of taxes. Also the banks now have the right to evict you at any time. We're just about there already. (Some people have even been sold into slavery.)

Just about every dime payed in taxes goes to pay the national debts interest. (aka Minimum payment) If the US needs more money we just borrow it from the Feds. At some point (its probably already there) there will be no way we will be able to pay this dept off.. EVER! Maybe the banks are using this dept to change world policies so that we will become surfs to just a few privileged and all powerful dictators. Perhaps they are using this money to buy up the world. I’ve heard both theories before. Either way it looks like we’re screwed.


The US national debt is 13,385,887,229,083.34 USD as of August 29, 2010.

The estimated population of the United States is 309,013,647
so each citizen's share of this debt is $43,318.11.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$4.11 billion per day since September 28, 2007!

•Average credit card debt per household with credit card debt: $15,788* 
•609.8 million credit cards held by U.S. consumers.

[raybe]

Nice post snowman. I would just like to clarify or add 2 things to my last post. When I mention us and them I am referring to the people or Financial Inst. that control the fine writing that allows them to basically get away with anything and falls on the few people that are left that can pay anything thus again diminishing that number of people. The other comment I would like to add is the comment about the '70s' and mentioned was bad economic policies. I should have added 'The lack of good or any economic policies'.

Thanks,
raybe

[DrFaraday]

Raybe,
I'm not making a case in favor of pick-axe and shovel jobs!    If you want to maintain that those jobs artificially made unemployment look less worse than it really was, I have no problem with that.  I was just explaining how it had caused the DJIA at that time to appear higher than the age demographic would have put it.  Then later, excise taxes put it below where the demographic said.  My point was, that economic policies can influence the DJIA a bit higher or lower than the Demographic would predict, but not very far from it.

I'm at a bit of a disadvantage here.  The graph I'm referring too, I can't post it here, it's at the link I posted earlier, I don't know if you saw it:

http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/

It shows that the DJIA and the age demographics follow each other closely.  Not exactly, but closely.  And even where they differ, it's not usually by a whole lot.  The book had more detailed graphs, and of course heaps more data.

I think the point the book is making, is that regardless of what people do to screw up the habitat, the trend is that the DJIA and the demographic will follow each other closely anyway.  If we get completely caught up in the shenanigans regarding the habitat changes, when in fact, the largest force affecting the economy is going to be the demographic, regardless of what we do, then we are missing something pretty important.  I'd like to be proven wrong about the demographic thing, because it's not a pretty picture.  If anyone can, please do!  If the demographic is correct, and for the most part unalterable, then will anything we do to "fix" it be like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic?  Is the best we can hope for is lifeboats and damage control, until the demographic becomes more favorable in 2023?

Raybe, I can easily agree with most of what you said.  You may be preaching to the choir where I'm concerned    It's just that, I'm just wondering how fixable this situation is?  And regardless of the demographic, I don't mean to say that all the bad economic policy is unimportant.  How this crisis is coped with, and who is going to exploit the crisis and use it try to change the power structure and perhaps even our form of government, is of grave importance.

I'm concerned that, combined with the demographic, this financial crisis could lead to a total collapse of our currency, which would be worse than just a depression.  I was really impressed with the James Turk interview, http://the-moneychanger.com/goldmoney/dollar_collapse.phtml, the interviewer really gave him a hard time, really challenged him, and he stood his ground well.  It's that scenario, our increasingly squiffy currency, combined with the demographic trend, that ... will make 2012 really, uh, interesting?

I saw the 2012 movie, the story was ridiculous New Age rubbish.  In the year 2012, the Mayan calendar will simply reboot, and start a new cycle.  No big deal.  But the special effects of the movie, when California goes under, really captured, I think, the subconscious fear that lurks in the minds of any Californian who's been through a big earthquake:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H50jTU4vqA0&feature=channel

I lived in CA for 24 years.  The fear of a massive earthquake like that is like the elephant in the room, that nobody really wants to talk about.  But everyone knows it's there, and it exerts an influence.  Likewise, I think this financial crisis is the elephant in the room, that is becoming too large to keep ignoring.

Our planet won't physically self-destruct in 2012.  But our financial world, that's another story.  If we can't stop it, we had better do what we can to soften it's impact, cope with the crisis, preserve what we can and prevent tyrants from exploiting the situation and enslaving us.  Our freedom is ours to keep or lose.


Snowman,
Possibly the most depressing part of of the Bezmenov video was his description of "Demoralization": when the truth and facts don't matter anymore.   Demoralization has become pervasive, and it makes everything else in four step process possible.  It's impossible to win an argument with, or persuade, someone who has no interest in discerning what is true, and what is false.  Demoralization is a rotten foundation on which nothing can stand.

The Soviet Union as such doesn't exist anymore, but there are still plenty of Marxists around, worldwide.  But whether it's Marxists, or the Banks, Demoralized Politicians or whoever (there is always someone trying to make a power-grab) it's important to remember, that there is no one group or individual in control.  There may be all sorts of people or groups striving for complete control, plotting to do things, but none of them are likely to succeed completely.  The Law of Unintended Consequences is always at work.  Or as the Jewish saying says, "People make plans, and God laughs".  All we can do is keep going forward, keep making right effort, as best we can.

[raybe]

 DrFaraday,
you may be right maybe I am preaching to the choir but as far as nothing else being able to effect us more than just demographics makes me ponder if people realize that they don't know when something is being done to them and accept one idea more than the others. That makes this situation so different then all other recessions we have had in the past. As far as the graphs are concerned I take you at your word, no need for me to think you are not sincere in your examples. We just agree about certain aspects that created or contributed to create these situations but I don't feel we disagree that they exist.

You did say you were worried about who is going to exploit the crisis and use it try to change the power structure and perhaps even our form of government, is of grave importance. In your reply to snowman you did also mention that no one group or person can succeed completely but like you I am more concerned about the damages that these groups have already caused and are continuing.

 As I posted earlier I believe the money is gone already and you can not replace what we have already lost. People can fool themselves into thinking if they loose $10 and make $20 they are up $10. Lights, smoke and mirrors the fact remains you lost $10 no matter what you make. But sure does make you think and feel better.

The DJIA may follow the demographics over and over again but the demographics still reflect a curve as does the DJIA but certain people or groups have a larger impact in my opinion on the DJIA. People aren't investing because of the demographics or they don't exist they are not investing because they don't have the expendable investment money they had or they are just plain scared from all the fraudulent practices we now are noticing.(The playing field has changed already,it's done! ex.Habitat) I know plenty of people that by my standards have wealth &  I understand they do not reflect the nation as a whole but when I hear and see how these people are expressing their thoughts about holding tight then it makes me want to second guess all that is going on. This is not old money I am talking about. Again maybe I'm just one of those people that lost so much of their comfort zone about what has happened I can't see the demographic and the DJIA pattern for this type of failure and I know you are saying the same thing that it is not just one aspect but put that all together and you have a major breakdown. I hope I did not miss read your post and I am on the basic ideas your trying to convey.

In my opinion I agree but the 'Habitat' plays more into the time factor to try and recover and is one of choices made as opposed to trends and then things fix themselves. Sorry for repeating myself. Choices are not trends, choices create trends and our choice to ignore that 'elephant' would be a bad one I agree.

 It's not a question of proving you wrong because it is a theory that others subscribe to as well. It is where you choose to put the most emphasis on. I have yet to see anyone prove anyone else wrong about this mess know matter what their belief is. If this is more than demographics and we agree it could be then we can't help but to be affected by a combination of problems which makes them no more important then the other.

 What I do find interesting is the time frame for a demographic turn '2023'. How do we even try to estimate based on not knowing what will happen tomorrow. What is the real truth of the real damage to date and I think by your post we agree about the un- surety of things to come.

I don't think God is laughing anymore, I think he is pretty fed up.

 I also believe that you cannot blame people anymore for confusing facts and truths. Just look at where it has gotten us and that is also a part of this mess. As you said how can anyone possibly change the minds or convince people of truth, lies and facts when we have been stripped of the very essence that makes our American Dream seem like another ride in deception with new rules that we don't know.
 

The bullet is out of the chamber and the damage lies in the target it hits and where.

Had more comments of coarse but I'm done for now. By the way I also have family located in the Oakland area of CA. I wonder how they feel about the 'elephant'? Maybe I should ask.

raybe

[raybe]

DrFaraday,
Couldn't sleep very well. But it's amazing if you stand from afar and put all these thoughts together it would have made it a perfect time for this transfer of wealth to take place.

You have the demographics, you have the housing bubble with the demographics of people that have false wealth. The only reason I phrase it as false wealth is because when middle class did have the extra money of coarse we were more than willing to make more, spend it or invest it since it looked like it was our time to flourish. But not true. If someone wants to call it greed I guess you can but I like to think of it as people really being put in a situation that they can now have what others have enjoyed because they worked so hard to get there. What a great setup!

I don't subscribe to a single meaning of greed is trying to have material things that were once a dream and because of their 'no giving up' attitude they achieve those goals. I also don't think it is not being materialistic for people that deserve to enjoy the fruits of their labor. The other side of the coin is if you took all the risk and all the financial burdens then you deserve to have these things. For anyone that has owned their own company and has carried all these burdens and taking it home with you everyday including employing others with a way to make a living and feed their families they deserve some rewards.( From my experience and I have owned my own companies since I was 17 years old and I am now 54 years old you take that responsibility seriously. Can't speak for everyone). So many other entrepreneurs I know pay their staff before paying themselves hoping that they will once again be in a position to rebound and not miss a beat.

 Everything is ripe for the picking. The Bank bail outs, credit card companies becoming legal loan sharks, the scams in the market that even the veterans of building wealth were taken in, Airlines and Insurance Companies that invest and wanted to be bailed out. Like putting out a fishing net and if you happen to catch other big game fish in the process all the better.

The right president for the demographics and the dreams for people to be finally generating money and then just like that with Wars, all the fine print, no regulations and scams the money is taken away and and put back in the hands of the people of Financial Inst. that control the money in the first place or special interest groups that get these politicians elected to begin with.

Let's not forget what will happen with tax situations as time goes marching on. Now that is going to be interesting to watch how they get some more money back from us. Somebody is going to continue to pay and it is not going to be the Feds or Govt. It will be us now and our future generations if they can survive.

The transfer of wealth is alive and well.

raybe

[DrFaraday]

Raybe,
You said, "Choices are not trends, choices create trends..."  Yes.  But even the age demographic trend itself is the result of choices people made to have or not have children, 45 to 54 years ago.  So in that sense, those choices did create the age demographic trend, even if unintentionally.

You also said "What I do find interesting is the time frame for a demographic turn '2023'. How do we even try to estimate based on not knowing what will happen tomorrow."

The 2023 estimate is based on what we know about people who are already alive today.  Assuming most of them survive til 2023, when they will make up the 45 - 54 age group, they will be the big earners and spenders in our consumer-driven economy. 

What could change that?  They could die in a war, or famine, or epidemic.  Or if by then we have a centralized, communist government running a "planned" economy, then the demographic won't even be applicable.

The other choices we have to make are  of course important too.    Bad choices can make a bad situation even worse.  But the choices we are going to have to make may still be bound around a demographic trend over which we have no control.  If the economy is tethered to that demographic, then the choices we have to make about the economy will also be tethered to it.  The age demographic IS part of the choices we have collectively already made.  How we cope with it from here on is of course, a topic for endless discussion.

I don't claim to have all the answers.  I basically just mentioned the book about the age demographic, for folks here to consider, because I think it's an important point.  Because if it's true, then we aren't going to see a "recovery" any time soon.  Even if we see improvement in the economy, I don't think it will ever go back to the way it was.

I think we had a large "fake" middle class; working class people living on credit, beyond their means, pretending to be wealthier than they were.

When I bought my first home in 1994, we were offered WAY more credit than we could afford to pay back.  We calculated what we believed that we could afford, and bought accordingly: a small fixer-upper.  But we saw many others buying houses well beyond their means.  Now we are all paying the price for it, literally.  I think it's just one part of the Cloward-Piven strategy,  to overload existing systems, in order to destroy them, so they can be replaced with ... something else.

I also own a business, so I feel your pain.  We can't expand or hire, and like many other businesses now, we are cutting back, in anticipation of higher taxes next year.

I won't keep hammering away on the demographic idea, I just threw it out there for consideration.  I don't want to ruin your sleep, or mine 

In any case, we shall see soon enough, what will happen.  In the meantime, the only thing that I know to do right now is, fight the good fight, as best we can.  What else can we do?

Well it's Monday, I'd better get back to work! 

- Chaz

[snowman]

I read the "collapse of the Dollar" article. I've heard some of this information from other sources as well. Turk did an excellent job of explaining himself. One of Turk’s statements makes a claim that "Looking at real wealth and adjusting for the dollar’s debasement, people are less wealthy today than they were 20-30 years ago.”

This is amazing to me. So basically, there is an illusion of wealth. What cost $100 in 1980 would cost $257.00 in 2009 according to the http://www.westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi website. So I only appear to be doing much better but in reality I'm not. But because I feel wealthier I'm more irresponsible with my money.

DrFaraday, you said,
"I think we had a large "fake" middle class; working class people living on credit, beyond their means, pretending to be wealthier than they were."

This only adds to the problem. I think I'm wealthier than I really am so I believe I can make the payments to larger loans. I can buy larger houses because I see that I’m making more than twice the income I did 30 years ago.

In this scenario it appears that because of inflation it has corrupted the minds of the average person which ultimately lead them into great debt. The inflation was in turn created by banks pumping too much money into the economy. The government reminds me of the average citizen who thought they would pay the debt off in time, so I think the government is also in the same delusional state as the average citizen (only far worse).

The main banks are driven by pure greed and not by responsibility to the average person or to any government.

Many have talked about abolishing the Feds and allowing the government to issue its own money all based upon governmental needs. This is well covered in the film “The Secret of Oz”. They hope that the responsibility to the people will take precedence rather than greed once watched over by our government. Only in America this might be possible. It seems to work for The Bank of North Dakota.

Is it possible to change our financial system to a government control / part gold standard. Is it too late the change the illusion of personal wealth in the minds of the individual. Well, as was pointed out in an earlier post, it takes around 15 years to demoralize a country. I wonder if it would take that long to reverse it all now that the cats out of the bag.

I certainly don’t discount demographics. WHEN the young careless (spoilt) generation becomes today’s leaders, rest assure, we are not having a recovery... I’m 30... I can speak from personal experience when I say that the Nation is doomed when the video game “era” gets into power. Well, I could be wrong about that but it’s certainly food for thought.

I want this discussion to continue for several reasons. 1# I personally want to learn more about the problem. 2# I want to allow others to express there feelings about the problem constructively. It is emotional and something needs to be said. 3# There are people that haven’t been commenting here but are certainly reading what is being wrote. It is important to educate others of this problem, because the main stream media will not. I’ve really enjoyed everything that has been posted about so far, depressing as it might be.

[raybe]

I appreciate your views about how you can believe having children is a choice and therefor related to demographics but you really don't get it as in my example. Do you really think all people choose to have children do you also discount your own statements about war and the million other unknown factors that control demographics. Who do you think these people are that come up with such statistics? Just a word; 'Paper or computer screens hold anything you wright on them' Fact. When people can use children to gain more support and receive benefits that are almost depleted including food banks because of many reasons be it a social one or that they need help to get by. Like I said there are those that manipulate the system but I dare you today to distinguish between the two. Tell me what we know about people today. Tell me you know your neighbor then I will take you on about challenging this demographic trend of choices as you would have it put.

You also said,  The 2023 estimate is based on what we know about people who are already alive today.  Assuming most of them survive til 2023, when they will make up the 45 - 54 age group, they will be the big earners and spenders in our consumer-driven economy.

 I already agreed that everything plays it's part and you agreed 2x :

1) What could change that?  They could die in a war, or famine, or epidemic.  Or if by then we have a centralized, communist government running a "planned" economy, then the demographic won't even be applicable.

2) Raybe, I can easily agree with most of what you said.  You may be preaching to the choir where I'm concerned    It's just that, I'm just wondering how fixable this situation is?  And regardless of the demographic, I don't mean to say that all the bad economic policy is unimportant.

Then you want to use words like 'ASSUMING'. ' Let's not disagree to agree'. I felt turning the phrase around would be more fitting.

Let's agree not to re- post what we both can read and know we said!! It is not constructive to anyone on this forum including ourselves.

We all agree we have big problems now and hope they won't turn us inside out in the near future. I also agree with 'snowman' and the fact that this doesn't look like a quick fix which I also think you believe since '2023' is a bit of time away or lets say enough time away to be a disaster.

Where are these kids in '2023' getting the money from, more magic. There can be more people and less to spend or as 'snowman' has mentioned false wealth as I also tried to mentioned in my previous post, 'The Change of Wealth'! I am not afraid to say I'm bios about this problem. I refuse to agree or conform with any one person's theories or group because they are all just that until something does change and then we can watch everyone argue again about how they were even more correct about what had taken place.(Sorry for bad grammar). Especially on the subject of money.

Your a business person as I am you know better then that. You make your own decisions based upon as much information as you can get but you are still responsible for the choices you make and I know for a fact your not always ahead of the curve. We all learn our own paths whether we model other successful people or like a child put our hands on the stove to realize it can be hot. That is what entrepreneurs do. This also includes anyone that takes a risk to become a musician, actor or race car driver. Let's take this to the limits, Anyone that gets up every morning or evening to make a living and support themselves and others.

There are things that drive us and we can control. Then you need to add the things we don't control. I know I don't know the right answer for every one. I may not be correct in my assumptions as well but it is only my opinion that something is being done to me and not for my benefit and I pray it doesn't happen to anyone else! Not you, 'snowman' or anybody I know or don't know. I will keep repeating myself that no one deserves this or should I speak for myself and my co-workers only because I do effect them and say what I see happening to me and my co-workers is just a crime.

'Snowman' I respect the fact you want to keep this thread open for any of the reason's you believe to be the right one's.  DrFaraday, I also respect your opinion and unfortunately it is an emotional topic as well as life today. I apologize for stepping on toes but I do not apologize for my beliefs.

Raybe

[raybe]

I just couldn't let it go. I wish people would stop with this fake middle class garbage. Middle class was already setup to fail. You want to add demographics to that little scenario. I challenge you to distinguish today between the people that had some wealth, those that thought they were going to achieve wealth and those who just wanted to look wealthy. Even during these rough times some people won't admit that they have no money. People were lead, shoved and pushed down that road. Or lets say certain groups made it easier for people to be lead astray. Sure you can call them naive, slow, dumb, greedy, whatever you feel is appropriate. This generation like other generations wanted more than the generation before them yeah I know that also comes from greed and now that generation needs to support this one. Some laws were written to control and keep things civilized and hopefully progress others were written just to control. When will people start to feel comfortable with the fact; it's okay to want nice things ,its okay to have a big house and a nice car, its okay for you to be comfortable with having or not having and you made that choice so don't get mad at others that have different priorities in life. I know plenty of people that skiped lunch plenty of times so they might be able to purchase a new computer and if that's what makes them happy then good for them. I am not going to be the one to tell them they are being selfish and need to get their priorities straightened out. It may not be right for everyone but some people can decide for themselves especially if it helps them either feel good, they achieved a goal by sacrifice or whatever. I know I won't be mad at him or her. (sorry ladies if I did not use the term enough). Yes, I also know that not everyone knows what is best and that we do carry responsibility for each other or we should try but that is all apart of who we are as individuals not some (oops was going to re-post something DrFaraday said but I stopped).
Okay I'm done and I won't lose sleep over it because there are other things besides posting that keep me up at night.

raybe

[snowman]

DrFaraday,

I finally read the downloadable article showing Daniel's theory. All I can say is Thats Amazing!

http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/pi_article_feb2004.pdf

It makes allot of sense too. My dad retired recently and I know others who have also. So Daniel is saying that because all these baby boomers are slowing down there spending, due either to retirement or just age, and that because there are so many of them, the Nation can't help but reflect the sudden impact. In other words, all the big spenders are no longer spending. Danial even predicted when the crash would start, that the housing market would crash, and ultimately how long it will last. Thats cool (in an intellectual way).

He's also showing just how bad its going to get. Makes me want to read the book. 

I wonder if we outlaw retirement we can delay some of its effects    .

Thanks,

[DrFaraday]

Snowman,
Thanks for posting the link to that article, I wish I had thought to do that.  When I mentioned to book here, I don't think I described it's premise sufficiently.  The article does a better job of it, and the book goes into a lot more detail, with lots more charts and graphs, and footnotes about where the data comes from, how it was collated, all the different factors that were considered and factored into the graphs, etc.  He was pretty thorough.

The comments about the book on the Amazon website were interesting, too.  People who criticized the book seemed to focus mostly on the conclusions he drew as to what to do to prepare for the bust (advice that I also did not agree with).  But even his critics seem to agree that the data is good, that it makes sense.  His data has also been cited in other books.

The author also looks at Japan as a special case.  Their spending patterns are different, because of when and how they receive pay raises (typically at two points in their working life, points at which they then begin spending more).  So the age demographic works differently for them, and they have already had their severe recession.  Because the rest of the world was doing better at the time, they were still able to sell their goods overseas and that got them through it.   But if the rest of the westernized, industrialized nations all go through it at the same time, it could be pretty tough going.

It's not a long read, I was able to read the whole book in about an hour.  So if it really interests you, I would say it's worth it.